Category: Science

The Martian

Ken Piper, July 23, 2016

I recently saw the movie The Martian for the second time. It is one of my favorite science fiction movies. I emphasize “science” because sci-fi covers a wide span, from mostly fiction with little or no science to mostly science with some scientific oversights in order to be more engaging. This one falls into that latter group. Yes, I know the Martian atmosphere is too thin to generate a storm like in the movie. And, there are lots of other things to nitpick about, if that is your desire. The story has a nice mix of humor and suspense that makes it fun to watch. But its importance may be in its possible effect on U.S. space policy.

I read an opinion that it is the biggest boost NASA has gotten in decades. The movie has brought to the world’s attention that we still have not gotten to Mars. The movie 2001 (1968) envisioned a lunar base and a manned mission to Jupiter. At that time, the space program was still in fast track mode, in order to get to the Moon before the end of the decade. Since that time, NASA has been low on our list of priorities, an especially easy target for cost cutting.

But the Moon program was during Johnson’s Great Society and the war in Viet Nam. Somehow we found the money to do it, and, it can be argued that the technological advances were worth the cost.

The writers of Martian were clever in their inclusion of China as a partner in the rescue attempt. And, in fact, one of the astronauts in the follow-up mission Ares 5 looks like he could be Chinese. As is the case with the International Space Station, international cooperation helps with the cost and has the added benefit of fostering cooperation among nations. A mission to Mars would be much more costly, and, wouldn’t it be nice if the nation with the second-highest GDP was a part of the team?

Now, if we could just get Congress to stop doling out the goodies to buy everybody’s votes, maybe we could afford to support a real space program.

Image: Fox Movies, via Google Images

Earthquakes and Climate Change

(No, this is not an article about “earthquake weather.”)

Kenneth Piper, July 10, 2016

I think climate change policy should more like that for earthquakes. Geophysicists and geologists study them to understand the process and where they happen most often. We also study them to try to be able to predict more precisely when and where they will occur. Although some people think we should be able to control earthquakes, we can’t (why is a topic for another article). So, earthquakes happen. And, we cannot expect to stop them from happening.

Climate scientists and other geoscientists also study climate, including climate history and the causes of climate change. Climate varies, due to causes both on the Earth and from outside the Earth. Examples of the former include plate tectonics, ocean currents, changes in vegetation (both on land and in the sea), and changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. Examples from outside the Earth include variation in solar input (due to changes in the Sun’s output and variations in the Earth’s tilt and orbit around the Sun) and cosmic radiation (which varies according to the sunspot cycle and has been found to correlate with cloud formation). There are also various human-caused environmental changes that affect climate, such as deforestation, large-scale agriculture, dams, combustion of various types, and air pollution.

There has been much argument over how much of the climate change is due to humans and how much is due to the other factors. It is clear to me, that without any human effects, the climate has changed greatly over geologic history. Just since the beginning of the Pleistocene Epoch, we have been through many cycles of cooling and warming, with global average temperature changes of at least 12 degrees Celsius. The graphs I showed in my previous post “Global Warming: Prelude to the next Glacial Stage?” show that we are due for (if not already beginning) the next downward trend. So, climate change happens. And, we cannot expect to stop it from happening.

Yes, we should continue to study all of this (it is not settled). But the parallel work, which is more important to most people on Earth, is being neglected. That is, preparing for what comes ahead. With earthquakes, there is much study by geophysicists regarding where and how much ground shaking will occur. There is parallel and related work being done by engineers on how to make it safer for those of us that are at risk. And, there are also efforts at teaching people how to be safer and to prepare for the earthquakes to come.

Climate change can be far more devastating for much of the Earth’s population, although it comes more slowly. And, we don’t really know for sure which direction to prepare for. In the short term, we may have some continued warming and some continued sea-level rise. In the long term, we may have to deal with continental glaciation over much of the most densely populated areas. So, we really need to work on both. Instead, politicians, policy makers, and many climate scientists argue over who or what is at fault. And they spend a lot of effort to shut up the people who have different ideas. I’m sure a lot of this is about power, money, and prestige.

We didn’t get to the Moon, or Mars, or the International Space Station by bickering. It’s time we move forward.

Image: Rifting iceberg, from inhabit.com, via Google Image Search