Earthquakes and Climate Change

(No, this is not an article about “earthquake weather.”)

Kenneth Piper, July 10, 2016

I think climate change policy should more like that for earthquakes. Geophysicists and geologists study them to understand the process and where they happen most often. We also study them to try to be able to predict more precisely when and where they will occur. Although some people think we should be able to control earthquakes, we can’t (why is a topic for another article). So, earthquakes happen. And, we cannot expect to stop them from happening.

Climate scientists and other geoscientists also study climate, including climate history and the causes of climate change. Climate varies, due to causes both on the Earth and from outside the Earth. Examples of the former include plate tectonics, ocean currents, changes in vegetation (both on land and in the sea), and changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. Examples from outside the Earth include variation in solar input (due to changes in the Sun’s output and variations in the Earth’s tilt and orbit around the Sun) and cosmic radiation (which varies according to the sunspot cycle and has been found to correlate with cloud formation). There are also various human-caused environmental changes that affect climate, such as deforestation, large-scale agriculture, dams, combustion of various types, and air pollution.

There has been much argument over how much of the climate change is due to humans and how much is due to the other factors. It is clear to me, that without any human effects, the climate has changed greatly over geologic history. Just since the beginning of the Pleistocene Epoch, we have been through many cycles of cooling and warming, with global average temperature changes of at least 12 degrees Celsius. The graphs I showed in my previous post “Global Warming: Prelude to the next Glacial Stage?” show that we are due for (if not already beginning) the next downward trend. So, climate change happens. And, we cannot expect to stop it from happening.

Yes, we should continue to study all of this (it is not settled). But the parallel work, which is more important to most people on Earth, is being neglected. That is, preparing for what comes ahead. With earthquakes, there is much study by geophysicists regarding where and how much ground shaking will occur. There is parallel and related work being done by engineers on how to make it safer for those of us that are at risk. And, there are also efforts at teaching people how to be safer and to prepare for the earthquakes to come.

Climate change can be far more devastating for much of the Earth’s population, although it comes more slowly. And, we don’t really know for sure which direction to prepare for. In the short term, we may have some continued warming and some continued sea-level rise. In the long term, we may have to deal with continental glaciation over much of the most densely populated areas. So, we really need to work on both. Instead, politicians, policy makers, and many climate scientists argue over who or what is at fault. And they spend a lot of effort to shut up the people who have different ideas. I’m sure a lot of this is about power, money, and prestige.

We didn’t get to the Moon, or Mars, or the International Space Station by bickering. It’s time we move forward.

Image: Rifting iceberg, from inhabit.com, via Google Image Search

My job was safe and secure – but it did not satisfy my soul

Ken Piper, June 29, 2016

I quit my government job – retired early, actually – for a couple of reasons. I was very good at what I did – so much so, that I was asked to do too many things. I was always feeling pulled in twenty different directions at once, and that was stressful. I didn’t want it to affect my health. This was illustrated to me graphically when someone came across several studies that compared retirement age to age of death. Each extra year of work after a certain age resulted in a two-year shorter average lifespan. And we could see that the crossover point was too close for comfort.

A more important reason was that the job had no meaning to me. I was working very hard on things that nobody cared about. My main task at that time was to assess and report on the undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of the Pacific Coast offshore. I was the expert. Sounds impressive, maybe. But nobody has really cared about that for the last 30 years – ever since they stopped having offshore leases on the west coast. The only use was as a political football for members of Congress or high-ups in the Executive Branch. I was a world-class authority on a useless topic.

I wrote about this at the time in “Writing my story.” I excerpted from it in my farewell email to my fellow employees. Most people didn’t get it; some thought I meant an autobiography. One woman said, “Yes, I’d like to write a story too.” But that wasn’t the point. I was helping others – politicians and high government officials – to write their story. I wanted to write mine.

In the years since, I have realized that there was more to it. I have always loved Robert Frost poetry, and particularly “The Road Not Taken.” I always wanted to be one who took the road less traveled. But I did not. I didn’t actually take the road most traveled; most geologists work for oil and gas companies. Instead, I took another safe road. I originally wanted to teach. But the government job I got to tide me over until I finished my dissertation became easier than the job search at various colleges. Besides, it allowed me to stay in southern California.

My job was safe, secure, and allowed me to raise a family. But it did not satisfy my soul. I want to make a difference in the world, and regardless how well I did my job, it didn’t matter. So I quit. In the intervening years I have kept busy, as retirees do. And, I have written articles, hoping to effect policy changes, albeit with little success. My friends say I am crazy to think I can make a difference. Even my family doesn’t read what I have written. But I feel driven to try, just the same. And so, I write – and hope.

Image: Robert Frost